Health-motivated taxes on red and processed meat: a modelling study on optimal tax levels and health and climate-change co-benefits

Summary

This modelling study calculated economically optimal tax levels for red and processed meat in 149 world regions designed to internalise the health costs of consumption-related chronic disease. Using coupled comparative risk assessment and international economic data, the authors projected that optimal taxation would increase processed meat prices by 25% on average globally (ranging from 1% in low-income to over 100% in high-income countries) whilst increasing red meat prices by 4%, reducing processed meat consumption by 16%, and preventing approximately 222,000 deaths annually with USD 41 billion in health cost savings. The analysis presents taxation as a market-based policy mechanism for aligning private prices with societal health externalities arising from red and processed meat consumption.

UK applicability

The United Kingdom, as a high-income country, would likely experience above-average price increases under optimal taxation (potentially exceeding 100% for processed meat), placing it in a policy context where such measures could meaningfully reduce consumption and health burden from non-communicable diseases. The findings are directly relevant to UK policy debates on food taxation and public health nutrition strategy, though implementation would require consideration of domestic price elasticities, distributional impacts on lower-income households, and alignment with existing food policy frameworks.

Key measures

Optimal tax levels (% price increase); consumption changes (%); attributable mortality reduction (number and %); health cost savings (USD); health-related costs to society (USD); price elasticities; global comparative risk assessment outputs

Outcomes reported

The study modelled economically optimal tax levels for red and processed meat across 149 world regions and projected impacts on consumption, non-communicable disease mortality, and health costs. It estimated that optimal taxation would reduce processed meat consumption by 16% globally, prevent approximately 222,000 attributable deaths annually, and avert USD 41 billion in health costs.

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