Summary
Climate change is expected to cause irreversible changes to biodiversity, but predicting those risks remains uncertain. I synthesized 485 studies and more than 5 million projections to produce a quantitative global assessment of climate change extinctions. With increased certainty, this meta-analysis suggests that extinctions will accelerate rapidly if global temperatures exceed 1.5°C. The highest-emission scenario would threaten approximately one-third of species, globally. Amphibians; species from mountain, island, and freshwater ecosystems; and species inhabiting South America, Australia, and New Zealand face the greatest threats. In line with predictions, climate change has contributed to an increasing proportion of observed global extinctions since 1970. Besides limiting greenhouse gases, pinpointing which species to protect first will be critical for preserving biodiversity until anthropogenic climate change is halted and reversed.
Outcomes reported
Referenced by Nature Communications British biodiversity scenarios as citation 40; likely supports topic area: biodiversity / conservation; climate change / scenarios. Topics: biodiversity / conservation; climate change / scenarios Evidence type: Research article / other Source report: Nature Communications British biodiversity scenarios Ref#: Nature Communications British biodiversity scenarios #40 Original: Urban, M. C. Climate change extinctions. Science 386, 1123-1128 (2024).
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