Summary
This modelling study integrated farm-level labour inventories with a biophysical input-output model of the global food system to project how dietary transitions towards plant-based patterns would reshape agricultural employment worldwide. The research found that adoption of vegetarian and vegan diets could reduce global agricultural labour requirements by 22–28% by 2030 compared to business-as-usual, though labour impacts would be highly geographically heterogeneous—with reductions concentrated in livestock-dominant regions and increases in countries requiring expanded horticultural production. The findings suggest that dietary change towards sustainability could yield modest macroeconomic benefits (0·2–0·6% GDP savings on labour costs) whilst presenting significant labour market transition challenges that policy must address.
UK applicability
The United Kingdom, with a substantial livestock sector and established horticultural capacity, would likely experience net labour reductions if dietary patterns shifted towards plant-based options, though regional agricultural employment impacts could vary. UK policy-makers and agricultural stakeholders should consider the findings when modelling the labour market implications of sustainable food system transitions and associated just transition support for affected farming communities.
Key measures
Agricultural labour requirements (per food group and region); percentage changes in labour demand by dietary scenario; labour cost savings as percentage of gross domestic product; geographic distribution of labour changes across countries
Outcomes reported
The study modelled changes in agricultural labour requirements across 179 countries associated with shifts towards healthier, more sustainable dietary patterns (flexitarian, pescatarian, vegetarian, vegan). It quantified both global labour reductions and regional redistributions of labour demand across 20 food groups.
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