Pulse Brain · Growing Health Evidence Index
Tier 3 — Observational / field trialPeer-reviewed

Global and regional health effects of future food production under climate change: a modelling study

Marco Springmann, Daniel Mason-D’Croz, Sherman Robinson, Tara Garnett, H Charles J Godfray, Douglas Gollin, Mike Rayner, Paola Ballón, Peter Scarborough

The Lancet · 2016

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Summary

This modelling study projected the health consequences of climate-change-induced shifts in global food production by the 2050s. The authors integrated climate impact models, agricultural production forecasts, and epidemiological disease models to estimate changes in dietary composition and resulting disease burden. As suggested by the title and journal scope, the work addresses a key tension in food systems: how climate adaptation in agriculture may alter human nutrition and health outcomes across different regions.

UK applicability

UK-specific findings would depend on the paper's regional disaggregation; however, the study's global scope means UK implications must be inferred from broader European or temperate-region results. UK policy on climate-resilient food systems and nutrition could benefit from the modelled scenarios, though local production and trade patterns would require separate analysis.

Key measures

Disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), mortality, morbidity from diet-related diseases, food production changes under climate scenarios, regional and global health outcomes

Outcomes reported

The study modelled future food production under climate change scenarios and estimated resulting health effects across regions and populations. It assessed how shifts in food availability and dietary composition would affect disease burden and mortality.

Theme
Climate & resilience
Subject
Food security & global nutrition
Study type
Research
Study design
Modelling study
Source type
Peer-reviewed study
Status
Published
Geography
Global
System type
Food supply chain
DOI
10.1016/s0140-6736(15)01156-3
Catalogue ID
MGmounx356-8axx28

Topic tags

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