Pulse Brain · Growing Health Evidence Index
Tier 3 — Observational / field trialPeer-reviewed

Modelling the potential impact of food taxes based on nutrient and energy content in the UK: a simulation study

Danying Li; M. Gressier; Zoe Hill; Jack J Olney; V. Targett; Michelle Young; Franco Sassi

British Journal of Nutrition · 2025

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Summary

This modelling study evaluates two novel food tax scenarios in the United Kingdom designed to improve diet quality beyond the established Soft Drinks Industry Levy. Scenario 1 examined an excise tax on sugar-reduction-programme products with tiered pricing by pack size, whilst scenario 2 modelled an ad valorem tax based on the UK Nutrient Profile Model. The findings suggest substantial potential for sugar and energy reduction, though the authors note that attention to regressive distributional effects will be critical in policy design.

Regional applicability

This study is directly applicable to United Kingdom policy, as it models interventions within the existing UK regulatory framework (SDIL, Sugar Reduction Programme, Nutrient Profile Model) and uses UK consumer purchasing data. The findings inform ongoing debate on fiscal food policy in the UK and provide quantitative estimates to support policy development.

Key measures

Percentage reduction in sugar purchased; percentage reduction in total energy purchased; estimated changes in consumer expenditure; product category-specific responses to taxation

Outcomes reported

The study modelled the effects of two food tax scenarios on sugar and energy purchases using simulation approaches. It estimated reductions in sugar purchased ranging from 4.3% to 38% depending on tax structure and product category, with consideration of food reformulation and potential regressive effects on consumer expenditure.

Theme
Policy, governance & rights
Subject
Food & agricultural policy
Study type
Research
Study design
Policy modelling study / simulation analysis
Source type
Peer-reviewed study
Status
Published
Geography
United Kingdom
System type
Food supply chain
DOI
10.1017/s000711452400182x
Catalogue ID
NRmontfj6j-005

Topic tags

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