Summary
This expert-led policy analysis uses a Delphi process with 31 experts to map potential acute food system crises in the United Kingdom and identify interventions to build resilience. The work identifies chronic system weaknesses—including climate vulnerability, supply chain consolidation, and just-in-time logistics—that create preconditions for crisis, and examines how three acute triggers (cyber-attack, extreme weather, international conflict) could combine to cause food availability or price shocks with potential for civil unrest. Seven system-wide interventions and 21 targeted solutions were prioritised to address these pathway elements.
UK applicability
This analysis is directly applicable to United Kingdom food security policy and emergency preparedness, identifying specific vulnerabilities in the UK's current agri-food system and providing prioritised, evidence-based interventions for government and non-governmental organisations to build systemic resilience.
Key measures
Expert consensus on food system crisis pathways, acute triggers, chronic vulnerabilities, and prioritised interventions; number and type of system-wide versus targeted solutions identified
Outcomes reported
The study identified chronic vulnerabilities in the UK food system (climate change, supply chain consolidation, just-in-time logistics, policy gaps, inequality) and mapped three acute triggers (cyber-attack, extreme weather, international conflict) that could precipitate food availability and price shocks leading to civil unrest. Seven system-wide and 21 targeted interventions were prioritised to build resilience and sustainability.
Topic tags
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