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Peer-reviewed

Uncertainty in non-CO2 greenhouse gas mitigation contributes to ambiguity in global climate policy feasibility

Mathijs Harmsen, Charlotte Tabak, Lena Höglund-Isaksson, Florian Humpenöder, Pallav Purohit, Detlef P. van Vuuren

Nature Communications · 2023

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Summary

Despite its projected crucial role in stringent, future global climate policy, non-CO<sub>2</sub> greenhouse gas (NCGG) mitigation remains a large uncertain factor in climate research. A revision of the estimated mitigation potential has implications for the feasibility of global climate policy to reach the Paris Agreement climate goals. Here, we provide a systematic bottom-up estimate of the total uncertainty in NCGG mitigation, by developing 'optimistic', 'default' and 'pessimistic' long-term NCGG marginal abatement cost (MAC) curves, based on a comprehensive literature review of mitigation options. The global 1.5-degree climate target is found to be out of reach under pessimistic MAC assumptions, as is the 2-degree target under high emission assumptions. In a 2-degree scenario, MAC unce

Source type
Peer-reviewed study
DOI
10.1038/s41467-023-38577-4
Catalogue ID
SNmoef2dz4-bb6bjb
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