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Peer-reviewed

The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP7 (ScenarioMIP-CMIP7)

Detlef P. van Vuuren, Brian C. O’Neill, Claudia Tebaldi, Louise Chini, Pierre Friedlingstein, Tomoko Hasegawa, Keywan Riahi, Benjamin M. Sanderson, Govindasamy Bala, Nico Bauer, Veronika Eyring, Cheikh Fall, Katja Frieler, Matthew Gidden, Laila Gohar, Andrew D. Jones, Andrew D. King, Reto Knutti, Elmar Kriegler, Peter Lawrence, Chris Lennard, Jason Lowe, Camilla Mathison, Shahbaz Mehmood, Luciana F. Prado, Qiang Zhang, S. J. Rose, Alex C. Ruane, Carl‐Friedrich Schleussner, Roland Séférian, Jana Sillmann, Chris Smith, Anna A. Sörensson, P. Swapna, Kaoru Tachiiri, Naomi E. Vaughan, Saritha Sudharmma Vishwanathan, Tokuta Yokohata, Tilo Ziehn

2025

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Summary

Abstract. Scenarios represent a critical tool in climate change analysis, enabling the exploration of future evolution of the climate system, climate impacts, and the human system (including mitigation and adaptation actions). This paper describes the scenario framework for ScenarioMIP as part of CMIP7. The design process, initiated in June 2023, has involved various rounds of interaction with the research community and user groups at large. The proposal covers a set of scenarios exploring high levels of climate change (to explore high-end climate risks), medium levels of climate change (anchored to current policy action), and low levels of climate change (aligned with current international agreements). These scenarios follow very different trajectories in terms of emissions, with some lik

Source type
Peer-reviewed study
DOI
10.5194/egusphere-2024-3765
Catalogue ID
SNmoimwtxp-7iex22
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