Summary
This study integrates ozone flux-based agricultural risk assessment with economic modelling to quantify the cost of air pollution on India's wheat system. Ambient ozone caused a mean 14.18% yield reduction during 2008–2012, with irrigated wheat particularly vulnerable. Economic modelling reveals that under fixed-procurement and fixed-expenditure policy scenarios, ozone mitigation would reduce wheat prices substantially, shifting welfare losses to producers (USD 5.10–6.01 billion) but generating larger gains to consumers and government (USD 8.7–10.2 billion). The analysis suggests that protecting agricultural resilience to climate change requires addressing air pollution alongside adaptation measures, and that current price-support policies may not optimally distribute the benefits of pollution mitigation.
UK applicability
Whilst the UK's ozone concentrations and wheat production systems differ significantly from India's, the methodological integration of atmospheric chemistry with agricultural economics and the finding that air pollution undermines irrigation-based climate adaptation have potential relevance to UK cereal production under changing air quality. The policy framework could inform how UK agricultural support schemes should account for environmental stressors beyond climate alone.
Key measures
Mean wheat yield reduction (14.18% during 2008–2012); ozone-induced yield losses by irrigation type; wheat prices under counterfactual pollution-free scenario; producer, consumer, and government welfare changes (USD); price reductions under different policy scenarios (38.19–42.96%)
Outcomes reported
The study quantified wheat yield losses attributable to ambient ozone pollution and modelled the economic consequences for producers, consumers, and government under different policy support scenarios. It measured yield reductions, price effects, and welfare impacts across three government procurement policy frameworks.
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