The economic, agricultural, and food security repercussions of a wild pollinator collapse in Europe

Summary

This modelling study quantifies the economic and food security repercussions of a hypothetical collapse of wild pollinators in Europe by 2030, finding an 8% reduction in European crop yields and €34 billion in annual global welfare losses. The analysis reveals that whilst global market adjustments through land use and trade changes partially offset direct agricultural losses, these adaptations risk increasing food insecurity in vulnerable regions and undermining biodiversity conservation globally. The findings underscore the hidden dependency of the agri-food system on wild pollinator ecosystem services and the uneven distribution of costs across producers and consumers.

Regional applicability

As a European Union member state prior to departure, the United Kingdom would likely experience comparable pollinator-dependent crop yield losses and price pressures. The study's findings are directly relevant to UK food security policy, land use planning, and the economic case for biodiversity conservation within UK farming systems, particularly given the emphasis on nature-friendly farming in post-Brexit agricultural policy.

Key measures

European crop yield reduction (%), global welfare losses (€ billion), regional price increases for pollinator-dependent crops, cropland expansion, net export changes, food insecurity impacts by region

Outcomes reported

The study modelled the economic, agricultural, and food security consequences of a hypothetical complete collapse of wild pollinators in Europe by 2030, estimating impacts on crop yields, land use, trade, prices, and global welfare.

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