Summary
This paper presents a high-resolution regional snowpack reanalysis for Lebanon's two major mountain ranges by integrating ERA5 atmospheric reanalysis data with MODIS satellite observations through ensemble-based data assimilation and energy-balance modelling. The ICAR_assim system demonstrated strong agreement with independent satellite and ground-based snow measurements, revealing substantial temporal variability in snowpack dynamics and orographic effects not fully explained by elevation alone. The findings indicate that freshwater storage capacity is concentrated at intermediate elevations with limited adaptive capacity under continued warming, presenting implications for downstream water security in the Mediterranean region.
UK applicability
Whilst this study focuses on Lebanese mountain hydrology, the methodological framework for high-resolution snowpack modelling using reanalysis data and satellite assimilation may be transferable to UK upland regions where snowpack contributes to water resources, particularly in Scotland. However, the Mediterranean climate and topographic context limit direct applicability to UK farming and land management systems.
Key measures
Snow water equivalent (SWE), fractional snow-covered area (fSCA), snow probability, spatial and temporal correlations with satellite and in situ observations
Outcomes reported
The study characterised snowpack dynamics over Lebanese mountain ranges (2010–2017) using a 1 km regional-scale snow reanalysis combining atmospheric modelling with satellite data assimilation. Maximum freshwater storage in snowpack occurs at middle elevations (2200–2500 m a.s.l.), with low resilience to further warming identified.
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