Projected cryospheric and hydrological impacts of 21st century climate change in the Ötztal Alps (Austria) simulated using a physically based approach

Summary

This study employs a physically based hydroclimatological model (AMUNDSEN) to project climate change impacts on the Ötztal Alps cryosphere and hydrology through 2100, using 31 downscaled EURO-CORDEX climate projections at 100 m spatial resolution. Results indicate moderate snow declines at high elevations (0–20% by 2100) but substantial reductions below 1500 m (25–80%), near-complete glacier retreat, and runoff decreases of up to 47% in summer flows by late century, with peak discharges shifting earlier in the year. The detailed spatial and temporal resolution and multi-scenario approach provide a comprehensive assessment of Alpine hydrological vulnerability to climate change.

UK applicability

Whilst this study focuses on the Austrian Alps, its findings on glacier retreat and hydrological regime shift under warming are relevant to UK mountain regions (Scottish Highlands, Lake District) where similar climate sensitivities and water management challenges exist. The methodological approach and multi-scenario framework may inform UK water resource planning and climate adaptation strategies in upland catchments.

Key measures

Snow water equivalent (%), glacierization (% of initial ice volume), total and summer runoff (% change relative to 1997–2006 baseline), peak flow timing

Outcomes reported

The study simulated future changes in snow coverage, glacier extent, and hydrological regimes across the Ötztal Alps using 31 climate projections under three emission scenarios (RCPs 2.6, 4.5, 8.5) to 2100. Key projections included declining snow water equivalent, glacier retreat retaining only 4–20% of 2006 ice volume, and substantial reductions in runoff by century's end with shifts in peak flow timing.

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