Pulse Brain · Growing Health Evidence Index
Tier 4 — Narrative / commentaryPeer-reviewed

Anthropogenic intensification of short-duration rainfall extremes

Hayley J. Fowler, Geert Lenderink, Andreas F. Prein, Seth Westra, Richard P. Allan, Nikolina Ban, Renaud Barbero, Peter Berg, Stephen Blenkinsop, Hong Xuan, Selma B. Guerreiro, Jan O. Haerter, Elizabeth Kendon, Elizabeth Lewis, Christoph Schaer, Ashish Sharma, Gabriele Villarini, Conrad Wasko, Xuebin Zhang

Nature Reviews Earth & Environment · 2021

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Summary

This Nature Reviews paper presents a comprehensive synthesis of evidence on the intensification of short-duration rainfall extremes under anthropogenic climate change, drawing on observational records and climate model simulations from an international research collaboration. The authors examine the physical mechanisms driving these changes—likely dominated by increased atmospheric water vapour availability—and review their observed manifestations across different geographical regions. The review appears to argue that understanding these sub-daily to hourly precipitation intensifications is critical for assessing future flood risk and agricultural resilience, particularly for rainfed farming systems vulnerable to intense convective events.

UK applicability

The UK, with its temperate maritime climate and intensive arable and livestock systems, faces heightened exposure to short-duration rainfall extremes and associated flash flooding and soil erosion. The review's synthesis of attribution evidence and regional patterns is directly applicable to UK water resource management, drainage infrastructure design, and crop production planning under future climate scenarios.

Key measures

Intensity and frequency of short-duration (sub-daily to hourly) rainfall extremes; regional and temporal patterns of change; climate model projections; physical mechanisms (thermodynamic and dynamical)

Outcomes reported

The review synthesises observational and modelling evidence on how anthropogenic climate change is intensifying short-duration rainfall extremes globally. It examines physical mechanisms driving these changes and their manifestation across regions, with implications for hydrological systems, flood risk, and land management.

Theme
Climate & resilience
Subject
Climate & greenhouse gas mitigation
Study type
Narrative Review
Study design
Narrative review
Source type
Peer-reviewed study
Status
Published
Geography
Global
System type
Other
DOI
10.1038/s43017-020-00128-6
Catalogue ID
SNmokeh31s-divi4a

Topic tags

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