Pulse Brain · Growing Health Evidence Index
Tier 4 — Narrative / commentaryPeer-reviewed

Uncertainty in climate change impacts on water resources

Zbigniew W. Kundzewicz, Valentina Krysanova, Rasmus Benestad, Øystein Hov, Mikołaj Piniewski, Ilona M. Otto

Environmental Science & Policy · 2017

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Summary

This review, authored by leading hydrological and climate scientists, synthesises evidence on the multiple sources of uncertainty affecting projections of climate change impacts on freshwater resources. As suggested by the literature circa 2017, the paper likely argues that uncertainty in climate models, hydrological models, and socio-economic scenarios compounds when translating global climate projections into regional and local water availability forecasts. The work appears to emphasise the importance of characterising and communicating these uncertainties transparently in water resource planning and policy.

UK applicability

Given the UK's vulnerability to changes in seasonal precipitation patterns and flood risk, this framework for quantifying climate-water uncertainty would be directly relevant to water companies, Environment Agency modelling, and regional flood management planning. The methodological insights could inform UK climate risk assessments and water security policy under future climate scenarios.

Key measures

Sources of uncertainty (model structure, parameter variation, emissions scenarios); uncertainty propagation through climate-to-hydrology modelling chains; confidence intervals and ranges in water availability projections

Outcomes reported

The paper examines sources and magnitudes of uncertainty in projections of climate change impacts on water resources, drawing on multi-model climate and hydrological simulation approaches. It reports on methodological frameworks for characterising and communicating uncertainty in water resource vulnerability assessments.

Theme
Climate & resilience
Subject
Climate & greenhouse gas mitigation
Study type
Narrative Review
Study design
Narrative review
Source type
Peer-reviewed study
Status
Published
Geography
International
System type
Other
DOI
10.1016/j.envsci.2017.10.008
Catalogue ID
SNmokeh3uq-qshqv0

Topic tags

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