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Peer-reviewed

Compounding effects in flood drivers challenge estimates of extreme river floods

Shijie Jiang, Larisa Tarasova, Guo Yu, Jakob Zscheischler

Science Advances · 2024

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Summary

Estimating river flood risks under climate change is challenging, largely due to the interacting and combined influences of various flood-generating drivers. However, a more detailed quantitative analysis of such compounding effects and the implications of their interplay remains underexplored on a large scale. Here, we use explainable machine learning to disentangle compounding effects between drivers and quantify their importance for different flood magnitudes across thousands of catchments worldwide. Our findings demonstrate the ubiquity of compounding effects in many floods. Their importance often increases with flood magnitude, but the strength of this increase varies on the basis of catchment conditions. Traditional flood analysis might underestimate extreme flood hazards in catchmen

Source type
Peer-reviewed study
DOI
10.1126/sciadv.adl4005
Catalogue ID
SNmokeh4rf-wzo1q9
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