Pulse Brain · Growing Health Evidence Index
Tier 4 — Narrative / commentaryPeer-reviewed

Challenges for drought assessment in the Mediterranean region under future climate scenarios

Yves Tramblay, Aristeidis Koutroulis, Luis Samaniego, Sergio M. Vicente‐Serrano, Florence Volaire, Aaron Boone, Michel Le Page, María Carmen Llasat, Clément Albergel, Selmin Burak, Maxime Cailleret, Ksenija Cindrić Kalin, Hendrik Davi, Jean‐Luc Dupuy, Peter Greve, Manolis Grillakis, Lahoucine Hanich, Lionel Jarlan, Nicolas Martin‐StPaul, Jordi Martínez‐Vilalta, Florent Mouillot, David Pulido‐Velazquez, Pere Quintana‐Seguí, Delphine Renard, Marco Turco, Murat Türkeş, Ricardo M. Trigo, Jean‐Philippe Vidal, Alberto Vilagrosa, Mehrez Zribi, Jan Polcher‬

Earth-Science Reviews · 2020

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Summary

This multi-authored review, drawing on expertise across hydrology, agronomy, forestry and climate science, identifies key challenges in assessing drought risk for Mediterranean agricultural and natural systems under future climate scenarios. The authors highlight discrepancies between precipitation projections, soil moisture dynamics, and observed vegetation stress, and the limitations of current monitoring networks and models in capturing heterogeneous regional impacts. The paper appears to synthesise evidence on why drought assessment remains uncertain despite advances in climate modelling, with implications for water and land management planning in the region.

UK applicability

The Mediterranean focus limits direct applicability to UK farming; however, the methodological critiques of drought monitoring and the uncertainties in climate-driven hydrological projections may inform UK agricultural resilience planning and the development of comparable assessment frameworks for temperate regions facing increasing moisture stress.

Key measures

Drought indices, hydrological modelling outputs, soil moisture, precipitation anomalies, standardised precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI), vegetation stress indicators

Outcomes reported

The study synthesises challenges in assessing drought impacts across Mediterranean farming and natural systems under projected future climate scenarios. It examines methodological, hydrological, and agronomic complexities in drought monitoring and forecasting across the region.

Theme
Climate & resilience
Subject
Climate & greenhouse gas mitigation
Study type
Narrative Review
Study design
Narrative review
Source type
Peer-reviewed study
Status
Published
Geography
Europe
System type
Mixed farming
DOI
10.1016/j.earscirev.2020.103348
Catalogue ID
SNmokeh5dw-f4pwd2

Topic tags

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