Summary
This multi-model climate projection study quantified future land evaporation across China under low, medium, and high greenhouse gas forcing scenarios, with particular attention to how vegetation greening influences water cycling. Using 16 CMIP6 Earth System Models, the authors found that leaf area index dominates interannual evaporation variability (>40% of variance) but that evaporation sensitivity to vegetation greening declines as climate warming intensifies. The findings highlight substantial regional variation, with particularly pronounced evaporation increases projected for humid southern China, and underscore the essential role of vegetation parameterisation uncertainty in multi-model climate projections.
UK applicability
Whilst this study focuses on China's geography and climate, the methodological approach to quantifying vegetation-evaporation interactions under future warming scenarios may inform UK water resource management and climate adaptation planning. The finding that vegetation effects on evaporation diminish under higher warming levels has potential relevance to UK agricultural water demand projections under future climate conditions.
Key measures
Projected land evaporation (ET); leaf area index (LAI); precipitation; air temperature; solar radiation; interannual variance contribution; sensitivity coefficients to vegetation greening across SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5 scenarios
Outcomes reported
The study projected land evaporation changes across China under three climate scenarios (2020–2099) using 16 Earth System Models and analysed the contribution of vegetation greening and other climatic factors to these changes. Land evaporation sensitivity to vegetation greening was quantified across different warming scenarios.
Topic tags
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