Summary
This benchmarking study applies the FATES vegetation demographic model to a tropical forest site to quantify how uncertainty in plant functional traits and ecosystem-level parameters affects predictions of forest structure and dynamics. The authors demonstrate that whilst single plant functional type simulations approximate observed productivity reasonably well, increasing functional diversity substantially shifts predictions towards higher productivity and biomass, with biomass-dominated metrics showing greatest sensitivity. The study highlights that competitive trait-filtering rules—governed by disturbance regimes and light competition mechanisms—critically determine whether early- or late-successional plant communities dominate model outcomes.
UK applicability
The findings are of limited direct applicability to UK farming or natural ecosystems, as they concern tropical rainforest physiological processes and vegetation dynamics. However, the methodological approach to plant trait parameterisation and sensitivity analysis in ecosystem modelling may inform development of vegetation models for UK temperate forests and woodland management under climate change scenarios.
Key measures
Forest productivity, above-ground biomass, large-tree dominance metrics, plant functional type diversity and competitive outcomes, disturbance frequency, height-based light competition parameters
Outcomes reported
The study compared vegetation demographic model (FATES) predictions across multiple ensembles varying in plant functional trait composition and ecosystem-level parameters, measured against field observations of tropical forest productivity and biomass at Barro Colorado Island. Model sensitivity was assessed across variables including productivity, biomass, and competitive dominance patterns between early- and late-successional plant types.
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