Increased human and economic losses from river flooding with anthropogenic warming

Summary

This 2018 Nature Climate Change paper by Dottori et al. presents a multi-scale modelled assessment of how continued anthropogenic warming is projected to increase losses from river flooding in terms of human mortality and economic damage across multiple regions. The work integrates climate model outputs, hydrological simulation, and spatially-explicit exposure and vulnerability data to quantify flood risk under different warming scenarios. The findings suggest that without substantial mitigation or adaptation measures, anthropogenic warming will substantially amplify flood-related mortality and economic costs, with implications for climate policy and disaster risk reduction strategies.

UK applicability

The paper's global scope likely includes projections for the United Kingdom and Europe, which face increased riverine flood risk under warming. Findings are relevant to UK climate adaptation planning, flood risk management policy, and infrastructure resilience strategies, particularly given observed increases in extreme precipitation events across the British Isles.

Key measures

Projected annual flood-related economic losses (in monetary terms) and human mortality under different degrees of anthropogenic warming; regional variation in flood risk

Outcomes reported

The study modelled projected changes in human mortality and economic losses from river flooding under various warming scenarios. It integrated climate projections, hydrological modelling, and exposure-vulnerability assessments across multiple regions to assess flood risk.

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