Summary
This global modelling study quantifies the previously underestimated role of dams in mitigating flood exposure under climate change. By simulating floodplain dynamics and flow regulation, the authors demonstrate that ignoring dam effects substantially overestimates climate-driven flood risk, with dams reducing projected end-of-century flood exposure by 12.9–20.6% depending on emissions scenario. The findings underscore the necessity of integrating water infrastructure into climate impact assessments.
UK applicability
The UK operates a complex system of reservoirs and flood defences that function analogously to the dams modelled globally; these findings suggest UK flood risk projections may be overestimated if dam and reservoir regulation are not explicitly accounted for in climate impact models. However, UK-specific modelling would be needed to quantify the magnitude of this effect under UK hydrological and climate conditions.
Key measures
Number of people exposed to flooding (millions per year); percentage reduction in flood exposure with and without dam regulation; projections for end-of-century under RCP 2.6 and RCP 6.0 climate scenarios
Outcomes reported
The study quantified the role of dams in reducing flood exposure by simulating floodplain dynamics and dam flow regulation under two climate scenarios. The authors estimated that dams reduce projected end-of-century flood exposure by 20.6% under RCP 2.6 and 12.9% under RCP 6.0, corresponding to reductions of millions of people exposed to annual flooding.
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