Bluecat: A Local Uncertainty Estimator for Deterministic Simulations and Predictions

Summary

Abstract We present a new method for simulating and predicting hydrologic variables with uncertainty assessment and provide example applications to river flows. The method is identified with the acronym “Bluecat” and is based on the use of a deterministic model which is subsequently converted to a stochastic formulation. The latter provides an adjustment on statistical basis of the deterministic prediction along with its confidence limits. The distinguishing features of the proposed approach are the ability to infer the probability distribution of the prediction without requiring strong hypotheses on the statistical characterization of the prediction error (e.g., normality, homoscedasticity), and its transparent and intuitive use of the observations. Bluecat makes use of a rigorous theory