Pulse Brain · Growing Health Evidence Index
Tier 4 — Narrative / commentaryPeer-reviewed

North American extreme temperature events and related large scale meteorological patterns: a review of statistical methods, dynamics, modeling, and trends

Richard Grotjahn, Robert X. Black, L. Ruby Leung, Michael Wehner, Mathew Barlow, M. G. Bosilovich, Alexander Gershunov, William J. Gutowski, John R. Gyakum, Richard W. Katz, Yun‐Young Lee, Young‐Kwon Lim, Prabhat

Climate Dynamics · 2015

Read source ↗ All evidence

Summary

This comprehensive narrative review synthesises statistical, dynamical, and modelling approaches for understanding extreme temperature events in North America and their association with large-scale meteorological patterns. The authors find that whilst climate models capture broad properties of heat waves and cold air outbreaks, systematic biases exist: models overestimate warm wave frequency and underestimate cold outbreak frequency, and underrepresent the influence of low-frequency atmospheric modes. The paper identifies critical knowledge gaps regarding large-scale meteorological pattern life cycles and calls for enhanced model assessment to better project future temperature extremes.

UK applicability

Whilst this review focuses on North American temperature extremes, the statistical and dynamical methods reviewed are applicable to UK climate science and extreme weather assessment. The identified model biases in representing low-frequency atmospheric modes and cold air outbreaks may be relevant to understanding UK winter weather variability and extreme events.

Key measures

Model performance in simulating warm wave frequency, cold air outbreak frequency, low-frequency atmospheric mode influence, large-scale meteorological pattern properties, and temperature extreme projections

Outcomes reported

The study reviewed statistical methods, dynamical mechanisms, and climate modelling approaches for understanding extreme temperature events in North America and their linkage to large-scale meteorological patterns. The review identified systematic biases in climate models and gaps in understanding large-scale meteorological pattern life cycles.

Theme
Climate & resilience
Subject
Climate & greenhouse gas mitigation
Study type
Narrative Review
Study design
Narrative review
Source type
Peer-reviewed study
Status
Published
Geography
United States
System type
Other
DOI
10.1007/s00382-015-2638-6
Catalogue ID
SNmokylbmk-pgg9da

Topic tags

Pulse AI · ask about this record

Dig deeper with Pulse AI.

Pulse AI has read the whole catalogue. Ask about this record, its theme, or how the findings apply to UK farming and policy — every answer cites the underlying studies.