Summary
Abstract Precipitation extremes will increase in a warming climate, but the response of flood magnitudes to heavier precipitation events is less clear. Historically, there is little evidence for systematic increases in flood magnitude despite observed increases in precipitation extremes. Here we investigate how flood magnitudes change in response to warming, using a large initial-condition ensemble of simulations with a single climate model, coupled to a hydrological model. The model chain was applied to historical (1961–2000) and warmer future (2060–2099) climate conditions for 78 watersheds in hydrological Bavaria, a region comprising the headwater catchments of the Inn, Danube and Main River, thus representing an area of expressed hydrological heterogeneity. For the majority of the catc
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