Summary
This global climate modelling study examined projected changes in atmospheric convection dynamics under greenhouse gas warming using both standard climate models and high-resolution convection-permitting simulations. The authors found CAPE increasing almost globally whilst CIN strengthens over most land regions, driven primarily by increases in low-level specific humidity (enhancing CAPE) and decreases in low-level relative humidity (enhancing CIN). The projections suggest potential intensification of convective storm potential over land despite greater atmospheric stability, with implications for future severe weather characteristics.
UK applicability
The findings apply to United Kingdom severe weather risk assessment under climate change, suggesting that intensification of convective storms over land may occur despite increasing atmospheric stability. UK meteorological and climate adaptation planning should account for these potentially counterintuitive shifts in both CAPE and CIN dynamics.
Key measures
Convective available potential energy (CAPE), convective inhibition (CIN), low-level specific humidity, low-level relative humidity, lifting condensation level, level of free convection (LFC)
Outcomes reported
The study projected increases in atmospheric convective available potential energy (CAPE) almost globally and strengthening of convective inhibition (CIN) over most land regions under greenhouse gas-induced warming, with validation through high-resolution convection-permitting simulations over the United States.
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