Changes in the convective population and thermodynamic environments in convection-permitting regional climate simulations over the United States

Summary

This high-resolution convection-permitting regional climate modelling study demonstrates that future warming will substantially alter the convective population across the United States, suppressing weak-to-moderate storms whilst promoting more intense convective events. The research attributes this shift to concurrent increases in both CAPE and CIN in a warming climate, with CIN acting as a balancing force that prevents weak-to-moderate convection but permits the accumulation of extreme CAPE needed for severe convection. The findings suggest potential implications for water and energy budgets under continued climate warming.

UK applicability

Whilst this study focuses on US convective systems, the underlying thermodynamic mechanisms (CAPE and CIN responses to warming) are globally applicable and may inform projections of severe convection changes over the United Kingdom. UK-specific convection-permitting simulations would be needed to assess how these warming-induced shifts in convective regimes apply to British precipitation patterns and severe weather frequency.

Key measures

Convective available potential energy (CAPE), convective inhibition (CIN), convection frequency by intensity class, precipitation diurnal cycle, atmospheric thermodynamic profiles

Outcomes reported

The study projected future changes in convective storm populations and thermodynamic environments using high-resolution climate simulations, finding that weak-to-moderate convection will decrease whilst strong convection will increase in frequency. Analysis revealed concurrent increases in both convective available potential energy (CAPE) and convective inhibition (CIN) downstream of the Rockies under RCP8.5 warming scenarios.

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