Summary
This methodological paper establishes a framework linking historical hydrological model performance to the credibility of climate change impact projections on water resources. The authors demonstrate that models with stronger historical performance increase confidence in projected water impacts and reduce model-related projection uncertainty, recommending performance-evaluated model selection over indiscriminate multi-model ensembles for adaptation planning. The paper provides practical guidelines for basin- and global-scale model evaluation and criteria for outlier rejection to support robust climate adaptation strategies.
UK applicability
The evaluation framework and performance-based model selection approach are directly applicable to UK water resource management and climate adaptation planning. UK catchment-scale hydrological modelling for drought and flood adaptation could benefit from these guidelines, though specific guidance on UK basin characteristics would strengthen local applicability.
Key measures
Hydrological model performance metrics in historical period; projection uncertainty; model evaluation criteria; basin- and global-scale model assessment guidelines
Outcomes reported
The study evaluated two approaches to climate change impact assessment on water resources: ensemble modelling regardless of performance versus performance-evaluated model selection. The authors measured how historical hydrological model performance correlates with confidence and uncertainty in projected climate change impacts on water availability.
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