Summary
This global-scale analysis of ERA5-land climate reanalysis data from 1960 to 2023 documents a significant shift towards drier conditions across the terrestrial biosphere, with nearly 28% of land surface becoming markedly more arid. The primary driver is attributed to disproportionate increases in potential evapotranspiration relative to precipitation, linked to rising atmospheric temperatures. The expansion of arid regions has implications for land carbon sequestration capacity and potential positive climate feedbacks.
Regional applicability
The European Basin is identified as a regional hotspot for accelerated aridification, suggesting direct relevance to United Kingdom and broader European agricultural and water resource planning. Whilst the study is global in scope, the identification of Europe-specific trends provides actionable context for United Kingdom farming systems, particularly regarding water availability for crop production and irrigation demand.
Key measures
Percentage of global land surface experiencing aridification; area changes in climate zones (humid, semi-humid, semi-arid, arid, hyper-arid) in million-km²; potential evapotranspiration relative to rainfall; carbon sink capacity
Outcomes reported
The study quantified changes in global aridity from 1960 to 2023 using climate reanalysis data, finding that 27.9% of global land surface became significantly more arid whilst 20.5% became significantly less arid. The research identified shifts in climate zones, with arid and hyper-arid areas expanding by 9.99 million km² (5.9% of global land surface), and documented regional hotspots of accelerated aridification.
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