Environmental consequences of a consumer shift from dairy- to soy-based products

Summary

This consequential life cycle assessment examined the environmental implications of substituting New South Wales dairy production with plant-based soy alternatives, accounting for market-level effects rather than simple attributional footprints. The analysis found that whilst water savings would be modest, GHG emissions reductions would reach approximately 86% of the production-based carbon footprint estimate; notably, when industry-wide mitigation strategies (enteric methane inhibitors and effluent methane flaring) are implemented, total GHG emissions actually increased by 0.63 Mt CO₂-e. The findings highlight the critical importance of consequential approaches in environmental policy-making, as attributional methods substantially overestimate the net benefits of product substitution.

Regional applicability

This study focuses on New South Wales, Australia's dairy region. The findings are directly applicable to Australian policy on agricultural emissions reduction and food system transitions. Transferability to the United Kingdom would depend on structural differences in dairy production systems, soy supply chains, and existing mitigation practices, though the methodological insight—that consequential rather than attributional approaches are necessary for policy—has broad relevance to UK agricultural and climate policy.

Key measures

Water consumption (litres); greenhouse gas emissions (Mt CO₂-e); carbon footprint; enteric methane; methane from effluent ponds

Outcomes reported

The study used consequential life cycle assessment to quantify water and greenhouse gas emissions impacts of replacing New South Wales dairy production with plant-based soy alternatives. Results showed limited water savings and that GHG emissions reductions would be substantially lower than predicted by attributional carbon footprinting, with net emissions potentially increasing when mitigation strategies are deployed.

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