Summary
This techno-economic modelling study evaluated decarbonisation pathways for India's urea production sector, incorporating electrolysis and carbon capture technologies across all 34 existing plants. The analysis demonstrates that high-level decarbonisation is economically feasible under most scenarios, with projections showing over 93% green urea adoption by 2050, reducing sectoral natural gas consumption by 96% and freshwater withdrawal intensity below current national averages. However, competitive vulnerability to low natural gas prices and international market volatility suggests that carbon taxation would be necessary to secure long-term decarbonisation targets whilst maintaining food security.
Regional applicability
This study addresses India-specific urea production infrastructure and domestic policy contexts. Its findings have limited direct applicability to United Kingdom conditions, where synthetic nitrogen fertiliser production is minimal and largely imported; however, the methodological approach to techno-economic decarbonisation of energy-intensive agricultural inputs and the strategic insights on carbon pricing mechanisms may inform UK policy discussions on embodied emissions in imported fertilisers and domestic net-zero commitments in agricultural supply chains.
Key measures
Decarbonisation pathway adoption rates; natural gas consumption intensity (MJ/kg urea); freshwater withdrawal intensity (m³/kg urea); levelised costs of urea production (USD/tonne); scenario sensitivity analysis
Outcomes reported
The study modelled techno-economic pathways for decarbonising India's 34 urea production plants using blue and green hydrogen technologies. It quantified feasibility, costs, natural gas consumption reductions, freshwater withdrawal intensity, and sensitivity to external factors including international urea prices and carbon pricing.
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