Pulse Brain · Growing Health Evidence Index
Tier 3 — Observational / field trialPeer-reviewed

CoBacFM: Core bacteria forecast model for global grassland pH dynamics under future climate warming scenarios

Kai Feng, Shang Wang, Qing He, Michael Bonkowski, Mohammad Bahram, Étienne Yergeau, Zhu‐Jun Wang, Xi Peng, Danrui Wang, Shuzhen Li, Yingcheng Wang, Zhicheng Ju, Xiongfeng Du, Chengliang Yan, Songsong Gu, Tong Li, Xingsheng Yang, Wenli Shen, Ziyan Wei, Qiulong Hu, Pengfei Li, Yanmei Zhu, Guangxin Lu, Clara Qin, Gengxin Zhang, Chunwang Xiao, Yunfeng Yang, Jizhong Zhou, Ye Deng

One Earth · 2024

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Summary

This study presents CoBacFM, a predictive model linking shifts in core bacterial communities to soil pH changes across global grasslands under future climate scenarios. Using a curated global grassland soil microbiota dataset and validated against 14 warming simulation experiments, the model projects widespread alkalisation of grassland soils, with implications for biogeochemical cycling and grassland ecosystem function. The findings suggest that bacterial community composition can serve as a bioindicator for forecasting soil pH trajectories under anthropogenic climate change.

Regional applicability

The study is geographically global and does not specifically address United Kingdom grasslands, though upland and lowland pastures in the UK may experience similar soil pH dynamics if regional climate projections align with the modelled warming scenarios. Transferability to UK conditions would require validation against local soil microbiota datasets and climate models specific to British Isles precipitation and temperature patterns.

Key measures

Soil pH change projections under future climate scenarios; core bacterial community composition and shifts; proportion of grassland regions with pH increases, decreases, and alkalisation magnitude

Outcomes reported

The study modelled soil pH changes across global grasslands under future climate scenarios using shifts in core bacterial communities as predictors. Results indicated that 63.8%–67.0% of grassland regions will experience pH increases, with approximately 32.5%–32.9% of regions becoming substantially more alkaline (by 5.6%), supported by 14 warming simulation experiments.

Theme
Climate & resilience
Subject
Soil biology & microbiology
Study type
Research
Study design
Modelling study with experimental validation
Source type
Peer-reviewed study
Status
Published
Geography
Global
System type
Pasture-based livestock
DOI
10.1016/j.oneear.2024.06.002
Catalogue ID
SNmonuuivj-5mk19k

Topic tags

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