Summary
This study presents CoBacFM, a predictive model linking shifts in core bacterial communities to soil pH changes across global grasslands under future climate scenarios. Using a curated global grassland soil microbiota dataset and validated against 14 warming simulation experiments, the model projects widespread alkalisation of grassland soils, with implications for biogeochemical cycling and grassland ecosystem function. The findings suggest that bacterial community composition can serve as a bioindicator for forecasting soil pH trajectories under anthropogenic climate change.
Regional applicability
The study is geographically global and does not specifically address United Kingdom grasslands, though upland and lowland pastures in the UK may experience similar soil pH dynamics if regional climate projections align with the modelled warming scenarios. Transferability to UK conditions would require validation against local soil microbiota datasets and climate models specific to British Isles precipitation and temperature patterns.
Key measures
Soil pH change projections under future climate scenarios; core bacterial community composition and shifts; proportion of grassland regions with pH increases, decreases, and alkalisation magnitude
Outcomes reported
The study modelled soil pH changes across global grasslands under future climate scenarios using shifts in core bacterial communities as predictors. Results indicated that 63.8%–67.0% of grassland regions will experience pH increases, with approximately 32.5%–32.9% of regions becoming substantially more alkaline (by 5.6%), supported by 14 warming simulation experiments.
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