Summary
This integrated modelling study quantifies the soil-based greenhouse gas trade-offs of adopting EAT-Lancet plant-based dietary guidelines across Europe. Whilst dietary transition reduces livestock-derived manure inputs, resulting in average soil carbon losses of 14 Mg CO₂e ha⁻¹ (up to 50 in livestock-intensive regions), afforestation of released agricultural land could offset approximately half these losses and achieve net European-scale CO₂ removal when above-ground biomass is included. The findings highlight the necessity of deliberate soil conservation practices (such as no-tilling or afforestation) to realise the full climate co-benefits of more sustainable diets.
UK applicability
The study includes the United Kingdom within its European scope, making findings directly applicable to UK soil conditions and agricultural policy. However, the heterogeneous results across the continent mean that specific projections for UK regions will depend on local soil types, current livestock intensity, and land use change patterns.
Key measures
Soil organic carbon (Mg CO₂e ha⁻¹), nitrous oxide emissions (Mg CO₂e ha⁻¹), land use change, organic carbon and nitrogen inputs from manure, above-ground biomass accumulation in afforested areas (Mg C ha⁻¹)
Outcomes reported
The study modelled soil organic carbon (SOC) losses, nitrous oxide (N₂O) emissions, and overall soil greenhouse gas balance across the European Union and United Kingdom under adoption of EAT-Lancet dietary guidelines. It assessed the potential for afforestation of released agricultural land to offset diet-induced soil carbon losses by 2100.
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