Summary
This state-scale assessment integrated 30 years of satellite imagery with soil legacy databases and InVEST modelling to evaluate soil organic carbon dynamics across São Paulo State's agricultural and forest landscapes. Cropland expanded by approximately 20% and accumulated SOC at notably higher decadal rates (6.34%) than forests, which recovered 15% in area but showed lower percentage SOC gains. The findings suggest that both agricultural intensification and forest regeneration have contributed meaningfully to regional carbon sequestration, with implications for climate policy and sustainable agricultural development.
UK applicability
The InVEST modelling framework and integrated geospatial methodology may be transferable to UK soil carbon assessment, though the underlying agricultural and climatic context differs substantially. UK policy on soil carbon sequestration through intensified arable production would require local validation of these findings, which are specific to tropical–subtropical soils and cropping systems in southeastern Brazil.
Key measures
Decadal soil organic carbon stock changes (t ha⁻¹ and percentage increase); land-use area changes (km²); SOC density by land-use class; InVEST model carbon projections
Outcomes reported
The study quantified decadal changes in soil organic carbon stocks from 2001–2030 across São Paulo State, finding that cropland increased by approximately 70,000–90,000 km² whilst forest expanded by 20,000–45,000 km². Despite lower per-hectare carbon density than forests, cropland achieved the highest decadal rate of positive SOC accumulation at 6.34%.
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