Summary
This modelling study used the SPACSYS crop–soil model, calibrated against over a century of Broadbalk long-term experiment data, to project climate change impacts on continuous winter wheat production and soil carbon storage in southeast England through 2100. Under all future climate scenarios examined, atmospheric CO₂ fertilisation drove projected yield increases of 5.8–13.5%, whilst soil organic carbon responses varied by fertilisation practice and climate scenario. The findings suggest that manure-based fertilisation strategies offer a more sustainable approach than chemical fertiliser alone for maintaining or enhancing both yield and soil carbon sequestration under projected future climates.
UK applicability
These findings are directly applicable to UK arable farming, particularly in southeast England where the model was calibrated. The study provides evidence-based projections for long-term planning of fertilisation strategies under climate change, relevant to UK policy on sustainable intensification and soil health.
Key measures
Grain yield (% change); soil organic carbon stock dynamics; total nitrogen stock; atmospheric CO₂ concentration effects; soil respiration rates under future climate scenarios
Outcomes reported
The study projected grain yield and soil organic carbon (SOC) stock changes for continuous winter wheat through 2100 under three climate scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP8.5) and six fertilisation treatments. Simulations were calibrated and validated against over a century of observational data from the Broadbalk long-term experiment.
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