Summary
This integrated modelling study coupled the MAGNET economic model with the DayCent biogeochemical model to assess the net soil greenhouse gas implications of adopting the EAT-Lancet healthy diet in Denmark. Whilst the dietary shift would reduce direct livestock methane emissions by 1390 Gg CO₂e y⁻¹, the resulting reductions in animal manure application and permanent grassland area would cause significant offsetting soil carbon losses (up to 480 Gg CO₂e y⁻¹) and increased N₂O emissions (2.1%, equivalent to 50 Gg CO₂e y⁻¹). The findings highlight that spatially explicit soil greenhouse gas accounting is essential for comprehensive climate assessment of dietary transitions, as soil impacts vary substantially with local pedo-climatic conditions.
UK applicability
The methodological framework and findings are directly relevant to UK policy on sustainable diets and climate mitigation in agriculture. However, the magnitude of soil carbon and N₂O impacts may differ substantially given the UK's distinct pedo-climatic conditions, grassland distribution, and soil types; spatially explicit modelling for the UK would be required to translate these Danish findings into locally applicable guidance.
Key measures
Soil carbon losses (Gg CO₂e y⁻¹), N₂O emissions (% change and Gg CO₂e y⁻¹ equivalent), livestock methane emission reductions, changes in animal manure application, permanent grassland area, and land use composition at national scale
Outcomes reported
The study quantified changes in soil greenhouse gas balance following adoption of the EAT-Lancet healthy diet in Denmark, using coupled economic and biogeochemical modelling to assess impacts on carbon stocks and nitrous oxide emissions from 2030 to 2100.
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