Summary
This study extended a spatially explicit stochastic epidemiological model to incorporate pathogen sexual reproduction, then evaluated how sexual reproduction influences the effectiveness of four major resistance gene deployment strategies for disease control. Sexual reproduction increased the risk of superpathogen establishment under mosaic and mixture strategies when single mutant pathogens reached sufficiently high frequencies, yet did not materially alter optimal strategy recommendations across a wide range of biological and landscape parameters. The work contributes to understanding pathogen evolution dynamics in agricultural landscapes and informing resistance management practices.
UK applicability
UK cereal and horticulture producers relying on resistance breeding and deployment strategies may benefit from these findings, particularly regarding disease management under conditions favouring sexual reproduction in pathogens (such as those with annual sexual stages). The model's flexibility across landscape organisations and parameter ranges suggests relevance to diverse UK farming contexts.
Key measures
Evolutionary control (resistance durability); epidemiological control (disease protection effectiveness); superpathogen establishment probability; strategy optimality across mutation probabilities, fitness costs, and landscape organisations
Outcomes reported
The study modelled evolutionary and epidemiological outcomes of different resistance gene deployment strategies (pyramiding, mixtures, mosaics, rotations) across varying pathogen reproduction systems. It quantified how sexual reproduction affects superpathogen emergence risk and optimal strategy recommendations.
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