Stakeholder interpretation of probabilistic representations of uncertainty in spatial information: an example on the nutritional quality of staple crops

Summary

This experimental study investigated how different professional stakeholders interpret probabilistic representations of spatial uncertainty when making decisions about micronutrient interventions. Using selenium concentration in staple grains as a case study, the authors found that negative framing (probability of inadequacy) led to more conservative intervention decisions and greater agreement between professional groups compared to positive framing. The findings highlight the importance of presentation format and interpreter background in communicating uncertain spatial information for agricultural and health decision-making.

UK applicability

Whilst this study was conducted in a selenium-deficiency context relevant to sub-Saharan Africa, its methodological findings on probabilistic communication and stakeholder interpretation are applicable to UK agricultural advisory and policy contexts where uncertain spatial data inform micronutrient management decisions. The experimental approach could support elicitation of stakeholder preferences for interpreting geospatial uncertainty in UK soil and crop quality assessments.

Key measures

Professional group (agricultural scientists vs. health/nutrition experts); framing condition (negative versus positive probability); decision recommendations regarding interventions; probability thresholds at which intervention was deemed necessary

Outcomes reported

The study examined how agricultural scientists and health/nutrition experts interpret probabilistic maps of selenium concentration in staple grains, and how framing (negative versus positive probability) influences intervention decisions. Decision thresholds and professional group effects on interpretation of uncertain spatial information were measured.

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