Summary
This modelling study using coupled sub-basin-scale models demonstrates that livestock production has driven a fivefold increase in phosphorus fertiliser consumption and twofold increase in phosphorus losses in China between 1980 and 2017. Currently, 25 Chinese sub-basins exceed both 'just' multigenerational limits for fertiliser phosphorus use (by 30% on average) and safe water quality thresholds (by 45% on average). The authors show that optimisation of the integrated crop–livestock system could bring all affected sub-basins within safe and just planetary boundaries by 2050.
UK applicability
While this study focuses on China's specific agricultural geography and intensification trajectory, the methodological approach to spatialised phosphorus budgeting and the finding that integrated crop–livestock systems require deliberate optimisation to respect planetary boundaries may inform UK efforts to comply with nutrient reduction commitments under the Water Framework Directive. UK livestock intensity and phosphorus management practices differ substantially from China's, but the systems-level modelling framework is potentially transferable.
Key measures
Phosphorus fertiliser consumption (kg P ha⁻¹); phosphorus losses to water bodies; exceedance of 'just' threshold for fertiliser P use (%); exceedance of 'safe' water quality threshold (%); sub-basin-level projections to 2050
Outcomes reported
The study quantified phosphorus fertiliser consumption and losses from crop and livestock production across Chinese sub-basins from 1980–2017, and modelled scenarios for achieving safe and just phosphorus boundaries by 2050. It estimated that 25 Chinese sub-basins currently exceed safe water quality and just nutrient use thresholds, and demonstrated that system optimisation could bring all sub-basins into compliance.
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