Summary
Ray et al. (2013), published in PNAS, analysed historical yield data for the world's four most important crops across thousands of county- and national-level observations to determine whether agricultural intensification is keeping pace with projected demand. The study found that yields of key staple crops are increasing at rates substantially below those required to double production by 2050, with evidence of yield stagnation or plateau in many major producing regions. The paper is widely cited as a foundational reference for discussions on the yield gap, food security, and the limits of Green Revolution-era intensification.
UK applicability
Whilst the study is global in scope, its findings are relevant to UK and European agricultural policy debates around sustainable intensification, yield plateaus in wheat, and the feasibility of meeting food security targets without substantial expansion of cultivated area or step-changes in agronomic practice.
Key measures
Annual yield growth rates (% per year); yield trend trajectories by country and crop; projected yield gaps relative to 2050 demand scenarios
Outcomes reported
The study assessed historical yield trends for major crops (maize, rice, wheat, soybean) across global agricultural regions, examining whether current rates of yield improvement are sufficient to meet projected 2050 food demand. It reported the proportion of countries showing stagnating or declining yield growth relative to required rates.
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