Pulse Brain · Growing Health Evidence Index
Tier 3 — Observational / field trialPeer-reviewed

Global and regional health effects of future food production under climate change: a modelling study

Marco Springmann, Daniel Mason-D’Croz, Sherman Robinson, Tara Garnett, H Charles J Godfray, Douglas Gollin, Mike Rayner, Paola Ballón, Peter Scarborough

The Lancet · 2016

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Summary

This 2016 Lancet modelling study integrated climate projections, agricultural productivity forecasts, and epidemiological evidence to estimate how future food production under climate change could affect human health globally and by region. The work synthesised trade-offs between agricultural adaptation strategies, dietary shifts, and population-level nutritional and health outcomes, demonstrating the complex interconnections between climate impacts on farming systems and downstream human health consequences. The findings are intended to inform climate mitigation and adaptation policy in the food and agriculture sector.

UK applicability

As a global modelling study, the findings provide context for UK food security and dietary health policy under climate scenarios, particularly regarding reliance on imported foods and the health effects of potential dietary transitions. However, region-specific results would be needed to assess direct applicability to UK agricultural adaptation and nutrition policy.

Key measures

Disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), mortality attributable to nutritional deficiencies and diet-related diseases, regional variation in health outcomes, agricultural productivity under climate scenarios

Outcomes reported

The study estimated global and regional health effects (mortality and morbidity) resulting from changes in food production under climate change scenarios. It quantified the interplay between climate-driven agricultural productivity shifts, potential dietary adaptations, and resulting population-level health impacts across regions.

Theme
Climate & resilience
Subject
Other / interdisciplinary
Study type
Research
Study design
Modelling study
Source type
Peer-reviewed study
Status
Published
Geography
Global
System type
Other
DOI
10.1016/s0140-6736(15)01156-3
Catalogue ID
BFmokjof1a-i61t32

Topic tags

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