Summary
This protocol describes an individual participant data meta-analysis designed to identify which patient and disease characteristics predict differential treatment responses in shoulder pain management. By pooling individual-level data from eligible trials of common treatments—including injections, exercise, and surgery—the study will use hierarchical one-stage IPD meta-analysis models to detect treatment-by-predictor interactions and describe clinically relevant subgroup effects. The findings aim to support evidence-based personalisation of shoulder pain treatment selection in primary care.
UK applicability
The methods and candidate predictors derive from prior systematic work, and the inclusion of UK-based trial authors and NHS-conducted studies suggests direct relevance to UK primary care practice. The identification of treatment moderators could inform clinical decision-making in NHS shoulder pain management pathways.
Key measures
Treatment-predictor interactions on shoulder pain and disability outcomes; individual-level predictors of response to advice/analgesics, corticosteroid injection, physiotherapy-led exercise, psychological interventions, and surgical treatment
Outcomes reported
The study aims to identify predictors of treatment effect (treatment moderators) by examining associations between pre-defined individual-level factors and the effects of commonly used treatments on shoulder pain and disability outcomes. Shoulder pain and disability were the primary outcomes measured across eligible trials.
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