Summary
This paper argues that much uncertainty debate in hydrology conflates epistemological questions with technical ones, resulting from logical errors rather than genuine scientific disagreement. The authors contend that apparent limitations of probability theory stem from deeper philosophical issues about knowledge and ontology, not from the theory itself. They propose that hydrologists would benefit from reformulating uncertainty questions as questions about information availability and use efficiency within an explicitly defined philosophy of science.
UK applicability
As a foundational methodological paper, it is applicable globally to UK hydrological research and water resource management. The critique of uncertainty framing may inform how UK hydrologists approach modelling and data interpretation in the context of climate variability and water security.
Key measures
Not applicable; this is a philosophical and conceptual paper rather than an empirical study
Outcomes reported
The paper examines epistemological and ontological foundations of uncertainty in hydrology, rather than reporting empirical measurements. It critiques current debates about probability theory's role in hydrological uncertainty quantification and proposes reframing uncertainty questions around available information and information use efficiency.
Topic tags
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