Summary
This modelling study combines regional agricultural labour intensity data with global food system biophysical models to project how dietary transitions towards plant-based patterns would alter employment and labour costs in primary food production. The analysis reveals that adopting vegetarian or vegan diets could reduce global agricultural labour requirements by 22–28%, although a substantial minority of countries (25–50%) would experience increased labour demand for horticultural production. The findings suggest that dietary transitions consistent with climate and health goals carry significant implications for agricultural employment and policy support may be needed to manage labour transitions.
UK applicability
The United Kingdom's existing horticultural sector and livestock-dominated regions would likely experience differential impacts; increased fruit and vegetable production could offset labour losses in livestock farming in some regions. UK policymakers implementing dietary transition strategies (e.g. through public procurement or health messaging) should consider the study's estimates of labour cost changes (0.2–0.6% of GDP globally) when designing agricultural support and workforce retraining programmes.
Key measures
Agricultural labour requirements (absolute and percentage changes) by food group and country; global labour cost changes as percentage of gross domestic product; labour distribution shifts across dietary scenarios
Outcomes reported
The study estimated agricultural labour requirements associated with healthy and sustainable dietary patterns (flexitarian, pescatarian, vegetarian, vegan) across 179 countries and 20 food groups. It quantified changes in labour demand and costs under different diet scenarios compared to business-as-usual projections for 2030.
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