Summary
This modelling study projects global food security outcomes to 2050 using the FEEDME framework integrated with IPCC climate and socioeconomic scenarios. The analysis reveals that projected population growth is the dominant driver of future undernourishment prevalence, surpassing the direct effects of climate change on crop yields. The authors identify population mitigation strategies—including maternal health care, food access equity, yield gap closure and trade pattern shifts—as essential to avoiding severe future food insecurity.
UK applicability
As a developed nation with stable population projections and established food security infrastructure, the UK faces different pressures than those modelled here. However, the study's findings on trade patterns and yield gap closure are relevant to UK agricultural policy and food system resilience planning.
Key measures
Mean per capita calories, minimum dietary energy requirements (MDER), undernourishment prevalence, Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) climate scenarios, Shared Socio-economic Pathway (SSP) population and land use scenarios
Outcomes reported
The study modelled future global impacts of climate variability, population change and land use change on food security to 2050 using the FEEDME framework, measuring per capita calorie availability and undernourishment prevalence across countries under different climate and socioeconomic scenarios.
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