Summary
This multi-model study examines the vulnerability of current agricultural land and food production to future water scarcity, integrating projections of land demand and water availability. The analysis indicates that approximately 11% of croplands and 10% of grasslands globally could lose productive capacity due to reduced water availability, with particular risk in Africa, the Middle East, China, Europe and Asia. The findings suggest that dietary interventions—including waste reduction and decreased meat consumption—offer the most substantial buffer against predicted land loss and food insecurity.
UK applicability
Europe is identified as particularly at risk from water availability reductions, suggesting direct relevance to UK agricultural planning and food security policy. The emphasis on dietary change and waste reduction as mitigation strategies aligns with UK environmental and public health policy trajectories.
Key measures
Percentage of croplands and grasslands vulnerable to water availability reduction; regional vulnerability mapping; policy intervention impacts on land use pressure
Outcomes reported
The study quantified the proportion of current croplands (11%) and grasslands (10%) at risk from declining water availability using multi-model inter-comparison. It assessed how dietary changes and food waste reduction could mitigate land loss and food insecurity under water stress scenarios.
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