Summary
Projections of biodiversity futures are needed to translate global policies into national action. We use dissimilarity modelling to project climate change scenarios for 1002 plant, 56 butterfly, and 219 bird species across Great Britain up to 2080. Under all scenarios we find extensive community reorganisation, with the disappearance of current bioclimates and emergence of novel ones. We also explore impacts of combined climate and land-use change, finding that even optimistic scenarios could see accumulating extinction debts. Sce- narios featuring reduced emissions and a more sustainable society could bend the curve of loss, reducing species heading for extinction by 32% for plants, 14% for butterflies, and 20% for birds. Scenarios differ in impact between groups, with plants showing the most severe responses to environmental change. Overall, we show that actions taken during the next 20 years are crucial to mitigate the worst effects of climate and land-use change for bio- diversity in Britain.
Outcomes reported
Under all scenarios, British plant, butterfly and bird communities are projected to reorganise substantially by 2080. More sustainable, lower-emissions scenarios reduce species heading for extinction by 32% for plants, 14% for butterflies and 20% for birds compared with high-emission/fossil-fuelled scenarios. The next 20 years are critical for biodiversity mitigation. Topics: biodiversity / conservation; climate change / scenarios; land use / agriculture / food systems; methods / modelling / statistics Evidence type: Main study / source report Source report: Nature Communications British biodiversity scenarios Ref#: Nature Communications British biodiversity scenarios #MAIN Original: Rob Cooke; Victoria J. Burton; Calum Brown; Colin A. Harrower; Steven M. White; Chris Huntingford; Rob Dunford-Brown; Richard Fox; Paula A. Harrison; Cang Hui; Dario Massimino; Andy Purvis; Emma L. Robinson; James Rodger; Nick J. B. Isaac; James M. Bullock. Future scenarios for British biodiversity under climate and land-use change. Nature Communications (2026). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-026-70064-4
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