Summary
This expert-led analysis uses a structured Delphi process with 31 consulted experts (through interviews, surveys, and workshops) to identify pathways from chronic food system weaknesses to acute UK food crises. The study maps how climate change, policy implementation gaps, supply chain consolidation, and just-in-time logistics create vulnerability to three acute triggers—cyber-attack, major extreme weather, or international conflict—any of which could trigger food availability or price shocks leading to social unrest. Seven system-wide interventions and 21 targeted measures are prioritised to address these vulnerabilities.
Regional applicability
This study is directly focused on United Kingdom conditions and policy context, examining specific vulnerabilities in the UK's food system architecture and governance landscape. The findings are immediately applicable to UK food security strategy, supply chain resilience planning, and agricultural policy reform.
Key measures
Expert consensus ratings on food system risks, pathways to acute crisis, and effectiveness of interventions; mapping of chronic system vulnerabilities and acute trigger scenarios
Outcomes reported
The study identified multiple chronic vulnerabilities in the UK food system (climate change, policy gaps, inequality, supply chain consolidation, just-in-time logistics) and mapped three acute trigger scenarios (cyber-attack, extreme weather, international conflict) that could precipitate food availability or price shocks. A total of 28 system-wide and targeted interventions were prioritised to build resilience and sustainability.
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