Pulse Brain · Growing Health Evidence Index
Tier 4 — Narrative / commentaryPeer-reviewed

Complexity and uncertainty in future food system transformation modelling

Enayat A. Moallemi, Adam C. Castonguay, Daniel Mason-D’Croz, Rohan Nelson, Wolfgang Britz, Cameron Allen, Michalis Hadjikakou, Michael Battaglia, Brett A. Bryan, Costanza Conti, Raymundo Marcos-Martínez, Stefan Frank, Duy Nong, Sibel Eker, Saman Razavi, Javier Navarro Garcia, Lei Gao

Nature Food · 2025

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Summary

This paper examines the treatment of complexity and uncertainty in computational models used to project future food system transformations. Drawing on a large international author team with modelling expertise, the work appears to analyse how existing integrated assessment models and food systems models represent key uncertainties and complex interactions, and likely identifies methodological gaps or recommendations for more robust scenario development. As suggested by the title and journal scope, the paper addresses a critical gap in how model-based evidence on food system futures is constructed and communicated.

UK applicability

UK food system policy relies increasingly on modelled projections of transformation scenarios (e.g. net zero, land use, trade). This analysis of model limitations and uncertainty treatment will be directly applicable to how UK policymakers should interpret and act upon modelling evidence in food and agricultural strategy.

Key measures

Model structure, uncertainty characterisation, scenario assumptions, complexity representation in food system transformation models

Outcomes reported

The study examined how modelling approaches represent complexity and uncertainty when projecting future food system transformations. The paper likely assessed the methodological frameworks, assumptions and limitations of integrated assessment models used to evaluate food system scenarios.

Theme
Measurement & metrics
Subject
Measurement methods & nutrient profiling
Study type
Narrative Review
Study design
Narrative review
Source type
Peer-reviewed study
Status
Published
Geography
Global
System type
Food supply chain
DOI
10.1038/s43016-025-01257-1
Catalogue ID
SNmok6mkdz-j9g9ah

Topic tags

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