Summary
This comparative modelling study tested 36 competing hydrological model structures across 559 diverse US catchments to quantify how structural design choices influence streamflow prediction performance. The authors demonstrated that model equifinality is widespread, that parameter count does not predict performance, and that model suitability relates primarily to streamflow regime rather than static catchment properties such as geology or vegetation. The findings suggest that optimal model selection should be tailored to specific flow characteristics and research objectives rather than pursued as a universal approach.
UK applicability
The methodology and conceptual framework are transferable to UK catchments, though the empirical findings are specific to US hydrological conditions. UK hydrologists could apply this comparative approach to assess model performance across British catchments with different precipitation and flow regimes (e.g., rain-dominated lowland versus upland snow-influenced systems).
Key measures
Model efficiency scores, model parameter counts, calibration and evaluation performance metrics, catchment descriptors (geology, topography, soil, vegetation characteristics), streamflow regime characteristics
Outcomes reported
The study evaluated streamflow prediction performance of 36 lumped conceptual hydrological model structures across 559 US catchments using daily streamflow data. Model performance was assessed during calibration and evaluation periods against a seasonality-adjusted benchmark.
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