Summary
This expert-led synthesis reveals that peatland ecosystems are at risk of shifting from carbon sinks to carbon sources during the twenty-first century, yet remain poorly represented in global climate models used for impact and mitigation assessments. By combining literature review with structured expert elicitation, the authors identified key climate and land-use drivers altering peatland carbon dynamics and quantified uncertainties in our understanding of the peatland–carbon–climate nexus. The work highlights critical research gaps and provides guidance for improved integration of peatlands into modelling frameworks essential for accurate climate projections.
UK applicability
The United Kingdom contains significant peatland resources (blanket bogs and lowland raised bogs), making the findings directly relevant to UK carbon accounting and climate policy. Improved representation of UK peatlands in national and international climate models could enhance the accuracy of mitigation scenario assessments and inform peatland restoration and management policy.
Key measures
Peatland carbon balance trajectories; drivers of peatland carbon stock change; degree of peatland representation in Earth system models and integrated assessment models
Outcomes reported
The study synthesised evidence and expert assessment to quantify leading drivers of change affecting peatland carbon stocks during the Holocene and predicted their effects during the present century and far future. It identified key uncertainties, knowledge gaps, and recommendations for better integration of peatlands into climate modelling frameworks.
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