Summary
This modelling study examines four contrasting visions of future livestock production systems and their land use and climate implications by 2050, ranging from continued intensification to complete transition to plant-based or artificial protein sources. The research demonstrates that achieving sustainability requires both supply-side improvements (crop productivity, waste reduction, livestock intensification) and demand-side shifts (dietary change towards healthier patterns with fewer animal products), with the relative importance depending on which scenario assumptions hold. The findings suggest that without simultaneous action on both productivity and consumption, only the most radical technology-dependent pathways (artificial meat) can meet food demand within planetary boundaries.
UK applicability
The study's reference to North-Western European intensive livestock production systems directly relates to UK farming conditions and could inform UK food and agricultural policy around diet-shift scenarios and intensification trade-offs. The results are relevant to UK sustainability goals and the design of future agricultural subsidy and trade frameworks, though specific regional land availability constraints and dietary preferences would require further localised analysis.
Key measures
Global land use (cropland availability and requirement); greenhouse gas emissions; livestock production intensity; crop yield gaps; food waste levels
Outcomes reported
The study modelled global land use and greenhouse gas emissions across four contrasting livestock production futures (intensification, plant-based transition, artificial meat/dairy, and ecological leftovers) combined with two dietary variants each, under varying assumptions about yield improvements and waste reduction. Results indicate that without substantial improvements in crop productivity and waste reduction, only artificial protein substitutes can suffice within available cropland; however, with realistic productivity gains and 50% waste reduction, all scenarios except baseline can be accommodated.
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